Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 17.936331 20.891573 24.130766 27.937819 32.282593 37.079068 42.767736
2024-10-06 13.481537 17.618266 22.630425 29.115630 37.246188 47.060548 59.758485
2024-10-13 11.019462 15.765642 21.982805 30.641502 42.292531 57.317531 78.030632
2024-10-20 8.698703 13.464877 20.142380 30.042717 44.178546 63.433375 91.392969
2024-10-27 6.805154 11.318146 18.037394 28.572871 44.424920 67.075241 101.478069
2024-11-03 6.178211 10.908519 18.314371 30.470310 49.553642 77.887848 122.492263
2024-11-10 5.781115 10.771205 18.942657 32.910341 55.670869 90.614394 147.355128
2024-11-17 5.056442 9.946938 18.324758 33.235506 58.444699 98.438917 165.373960
2024-11-24 4.328989 8.984297 17.319445 32.748179 59.776521 104.025855 180.244416
2024-12-01 3.654238 7.996785 16.117377 31.736228 60.055938 107.843318 192.454735
2024-12-08 3.205558 7.368467 15.471497 31.612988 61.810495 114.177825 209.221572
2024-12-15 2.857775 6.884151 15.024778 31.785412 64.071885 121.501856 228.147781
2024-12-22 2.341948 5.976755 13.675399 30.174781 63.099781 123.476684 238.700258
2024-12-29 2.136220 5.731145 13.656048 31.232226 67.371535 135.365786 268.133331
2025-01-05 1.994618 5.608667 13.879136 32.814343 72.837797 149.934239 303.658475
2025-01-12 1.709358 5.072758 13.104758 32.168262 73.734261 155.940330 323.719467
2025-01-19 1.411426 4.435226 11.988007 30.602336 72.520252 157.710073 335.796751
2025-01-26 1.359431 4.451709 12.428172 32.621017 79.143991 175.522009 380.411569
2025-02-02 1.337767 4.549826 13.082485 35.216290 87.275358 197.000061 433.809974
2025-02-09 1.207101 4.299852 12.814506 35.562052 90.410624 208.430342 467.773335
2025-02-16 1.055660 3.950774 12.229295 35.043820 91.505726 215.647387 493.601417
2025-02-23 0.903710 3.561661 11.467868 33.967560 91.161615 219.720470 513.112997
2025-03-02 0.804690 3.324063 11.089888 33.836475 93.056819 228.807309 543.892837